Dutch State Lottery's Believe in Luck campaign for New Year's Eve Draw 2023, created by TBWA\NEBOKO, tells a time-travel love story that earned international
ARCHIVEDutch State Lottery Bets on Love Over Jackpots in Believe in Luck
Dutch State Lottery's "Believe in Luck" is a 105-second emotional film created by Amsterdam-based agency TBWA\NEBOKO for the New Year's Eve Draw 2023 in the Netherlands, following a young man who travels through time and ultimately chooses a potential romantic connection over a lottery ticket worth thirty million euros.
The campaign launched on 10 December 2023, positioning the Dutch State Lottery's flagship seasonal draw not around the fantasy of wealth but around the premise that happiness is a choice made in the present. The narrative centres on a protagonist who, after spotting an antique that functions as a time machine, is transported to 2078, where he encounters an elderly version of himself living in a prosperous future. That glimpse forward does not generate envy or longing — it prompts an immediate decision about what he values now. When the moment arrives to choose between the lottery ticket he has just purchased and a connection that feels meaningful, he does not hesitate.
In the Netherlands, where the New Year's Eve draw is a firmly embedded cultural ritual, Dutch State Lottery has built an annual tradition of accompanying that moment with an emotionally substantial piece of film. The 2023 edition continues a platform established in prior years, shifting its narrative axis from a father-and-son adventure to a romantic, time-travel storyline while preserving the core strategic proposition: that the thirty-million-euro prize is extraordinary, but it is secondary to the relationships and choices that define a life. Michael Kastelijns, Business Director at Dutch State Lottery, stated that the goal is to strike a chord by reminding audiences that happiness is held in one's own hands and is best shared with someone loved. The campaign earned a Clapboard Score of 72 out of 100, reflecting strong creative ambition and cultural resonance within the Dutch market.
ARCHIVEDutch State Lottery operates within the Nederlandse Loterij group and held an estimated twenty-five to thirty-five percent share of the Dutch lottery category in 2023, according to igamingbusiness.com. That position is held against meaningful competitive pressure: Nationale Postcode Loterij commanded an estimated twenty to thirty percent of the same category, per igamingbusiness.com, while VriendenLoterij accounted for additional share within a segment that, according to Sigma World, represented approximately thirty percent of the Dutch legal gambling market in 2023 — or roughly 1.2 billion euros in gross gaming revenue. The wider Dutch legal gambling market generated 4.0 billion euros in gross gaming revenue in 2023, up from 3.3 billion euros in 2022, according to sigma.world.
Within that competitive environment, differentiating on rational grounds — jackpot size, ticket price, odds — offers limited advantage for an incumbent. TBWA\NEBOKO's strategic response is to own emotional territory. The "Believe in Luck" campaign and its predecessors argue implicitly that the Dutch State Lottery is not selling a financial instrument but a moment of cultural participation and personal reflection. The New Year's Eve Draw 2023 becomes a narrative occasion rather than a transactional prompt.
The insight driving the 2023 film is precise: lottery advertising frequently amplifies the fantasy of winning, but Dutch State Lottery inverts that convention by asking what a winner would actually do with an abundant future — and suggesting the answer is less about money than about love and presence. As noted by thedrum.com in its coverage of the campaign in December 2023, the film is designed to pull on heartstrings rather than stimulate purchase intent in a conventional sense. That strategic posture is consistent across the brand's recent New Year's Eve films, giving Dutch State Lottery a recognisable creative signature in the Netherlands that neither Nationale Postcode Loterij nor VriendenLoterij has matched directly.
Director Ismael ten Heuvel brought the "Believe in Luck" concept to screen through production company Pink Rabbit, delivering a 105-second film that shots.net characterised as a romantic, Hollywood-esque journey when covering the work on 11 December 2023. The production creates two distinct visual worlds — the present-day Netherlands and a luminous domestic future set in 2078 — requiring the film to carry credible production design across both registers without allowing spectacle to overwhelm the intimacy of its central emotional beat.
Erik Falke, Executive Creative Director at TBWA\NEBOKO, described the creative genesis in terms that ground the fantastical mechanics in universal psychology. He stated that peeking into one's own future is something that fascinates everyone, and that the time machine conceit was invented to explore what a young man might discover about a wealthy future life — only to find that discovery redirects him toward something more valuable in the present. As reported by shots.net and Little Black Book, that framing gives the campaign its structural tension: the protagonist is not escaping the present but being returned to it with greater clarity.
The creative execution relies on a single, well-constructed character arc rather than ensemble storytelling or comedy, which represents a disciplined choice for a seasonal commercial operating in a crowded December advertising environment in the Netherlands. The film's pacing allows the emotional resolution — the choice of connection over ticket — to land without manipulation, a quality that lbbonline.com noted in its coverage of the work. TBWA\NEBOKO's treatment of the Dutch State Lottery brand across consecutive New Year's Eve films has produced a cumulative creative identity: warmth, restraint, and the consistent elevation of human relationship over financial reward.
No verified sales, brand-tracking, or return-on-investment data specifically attributed to the "Believe in Luck" campaign is publicly available at the time of writing. What the public record does confirm is a pattern of industry recognition that speaks to the work's creative standing in the Netherlands and internationally.
Cannes Lions awarded a Bronze Lion in the Film category — Travel and Leisure — in 2023 to Dutch State Lottery, though Cannes Lions' published records do not explicitly confirm that the award was assigned to "Believe in Luck" rather than another Dutch State Lottery campaign from the same eligibility period. Separately, industry coverage from Adformatie Nl and Marketingreport Nl notes that the Gold Loeki award for best commercial of the year — a Dutch industry recognition determined by audience polling — was associated with Dutch State Lottery, with reporting indicating that four of five Dutch State Lottery commercials received Gold Loeki recognition, though neither publication identifies "Believe in Luck" as one of the four winning entries by name.
The Drum included the film in its Best Ads of the Week selection on 13 December 2023, as reported by thedrum.com, validating its creative impact within days of launch. shots.net gave the campaign prominent editorial coverage on 11 December 2023. The cumulative picture — international Lions recognition, Dutch audience-voted awards, and prominent trade press placement — places "Believe in Luck" among the more visible Dutch advertising productions of 2023. The Clapboard Score of 72 out of 100 reflects strong narrative coherence and emotional craft, with room for greater measurable market impact to be established through publicly verified performance data.
"Believe in Luck" is a 105-second emotional film created by TBWA\NEBOKO for Dutch State Lottery's New Year's Eve Draw 2023 in the Netherlands. The film follows a young man who travels through time and chooses a romantic connection over a lottery ticket, reinforcing the brand's message that love outranks a thirty-million-euro jackpot.
Director Ismael ten Heuvel directed the film. Ten Heuvel worked with production company Pink Rabbit and Amsterdam-based agency TBWA\NEBOKO. The film launched on 10 December 2023 in the Netherlands and was described by shots.net as a romantic, Hollywood-esque journey built around a time-travel narrative centred on personal choice.
Cannes Lions awarded a Bronze Lion in the Film category to Dutch State Lottery in 2023, though published records do not explicitly confirm the award was assigned to "Believe in Luck" specifically. Dutch State Lottery also received Gold Loeki recognition in the Netherlands, per adformatie.nl, though individual campaign attribution was not confirmed in available reporting.
TBWA\NEBOKO builds each New Year's Eve campaign around emotional storytelling that positions relationships and personal choice above financial reward. Executive Creative Director Erik Falke described the 2023 concept as using a time machine to explore what truly matters in a prosperous future, deliberately inverting conventional lottery advertising that centres on jackpot fantasy.
The Dutch legal gambling market generated 4.0 billion euros in gross gaming revenue in 2023, according to sigma.world. Lotteries represented approximately thirty percent of that market. Dutch State Lottery held an estimated twenty-five to thirty-five percent share of the Dutch lottery category, competing directly against Nationale Postcode Loterij and VriendenLoterij, per igamingbusiness.com.
"Believe in Luck" holds a Clapboard Score of 72 out of 100. The score reflects strong narrative coherence, disciplined emotional craft, and clear brand alignment across Dutch State Lottery's established New Year's Eve platform. The score also acknowledges the absence of publicly verified performance data that would confirm measurable commercial impact in the Netherlands.
.webp)
Creative Collaboration Platform: The Backbone of Modern Creative WorkWhat is a creative collaboration platform?Clapboard defines a creative collaboration platform as the operational core for today’s distributed creative teams. This is not a collection of digital collaboration tools stitched together; Clapboard’s system
Understanding the Creative Production MarketplaceWhat is a Creative Production Marketplace?Clapboard defines a creative production marketplace as a structured ecosystem where brands, agencies, and production talent converge to execute video, advertising, and branded content at scale. Unlike the legacy agency or freelanREAD FULL ARTICLE
The Urgent Need for a Creative Production Operating SystemWhy Traditional Creative Production Models Break DownClapboard sees the creative production landscape shifting under pressure. Content velocity is no longer a buzzword—it’s a mandate. Modern advertising demands relentless output across dozens of channels, each wREAD FULL ARTICLE
